By Ibrahim Athif Shakoor
The 7th October attack by Hamas and the revenge and devastation by the IDF, has completely re-shuffled the board game and new dynamics now in play, make it impossible for the consequences to be swept aside.
Background
For decades, Israel had played a shrewd and subtle game with the international community. Yes, absolutely, we fully support the 2-state solution. Just show us where to sign. It’s not us, but the Palestinian hardliners and their belligerence that prevents peace.
And it worked, for decades.
Meanwhile, slices of the Palestinian homeland were slowly carved out to enlarge settler footprints. Palestinian families, quite automatically stood against such encroachments. Which again, also quite logically, meant that additional settler land needed to be sliced out. Only because they need an additional security barrier surrounding the new settlements.
By 7th October 2023, Israeli had, using salami tactics, succeeded in spreading themselves to the majority of the land of Palestine. Small parcels of land that were not ‘settled’ yet, were under effective Israeli control.
Geopolitics today
Perhaps it was pure coincidence. Perhaps it was a strategic masterpiece. Either way, the timing of the October 7th attack and how it unfolded had brought to the surface, many a fissure that had been slowly accumulating pressure for decades.
In the past few years, political re-alignments had brought an end to the ‘dual-polar’ world that had been effectively controlling geo-politics since the end of World War 2. China had been making its presence felt, not only in the South China Sea but across Middle East, Africa and even in South America. After having failed to keep Iran isolated, embassies have opened both in Riyaz and Tehran. India, while being strategically aligned to the West, have shrugged off the ‘not too subtle’ warnings and continued a trading relationship with Russia. The Russian Bear, even while making costly tactical missteps, unsurprisingly is, exploiting the new fissures for its advantage. America no longer has total hegemony over world affairs.
Additionally, the pure brazenness of the 7th October attack had provoked the IDF into brutal revenge with genocidal attacks and wreaking utter devastation. The World can, for the first time, see the IDF as they actually are. Their true intentions, the callous tactics, the utter disregard for human life, even if they be babies on ventilators. What they had repeatedly done elsewhere, but with stealth and denial, is available for public consumption today.
The Consequences
The new dynamics defining the geo-political world of today, being more fractalized, can no longer shield IDF, like they did in Lebanon in the early 80’s. The Houthis, the Hezbollah and the Iraqi forces are emboldened, better armed and with bigger and more committed ‘friends.’ They are not willing to let the Israeli aggression slide.
Meanwhile, the carnage is no longer happening far and away. Today’s modern media allows the destruction to be brought into each home, into the palm of their hands and into their heart.
US led ‘Operation Prosperity Guardian’, while undoubtedly a mouthful, (minus Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the Emirates) has not reassured shipping companies. Insurance costs have risen, and the longer route has already moved the benchmark Brent prices 2% upwards, even while winter is in full force. And it’s a logical connection in the modern world, that commodity prices will follow oil prices, leading to cost push inflation across the world. The slugfest in the Middle East may no longer be a spectator sport.
If this continue, and let us hope that it doesn’t, rising freight prices will affect everyone, however cloistered and in a sanctuary they are. The Palestinian issue is no longer someone else’s concern happening in a land far far away. It is coming to the doorstep of the world. Sit up and take note.
Ibrahim Athif Shakoor is a Maldivian writer and essayist. Writing in both Dhivehi, the national language and in English, he writes mostly on matters economic. He is the co-founder and co-editor or the Maldives Economic Review mer.mv. Some of his writings, from a career spanning 2 decades, are being collected in his blogpost www.athifshakoor.com