BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 24. The onset of the
conflict in Ukraine in 2022 resulted in significant economic
repercussions for both the region and beyond. Specifically,
traditional transportation routes linking Asia and Europe
experienced notable negative impacts.
Consequently, key stakeholders in Europe and Asia have chosen
several paths to restore the movement goods between the two
continents, with the Middle Corridor being one prominent choice.
This corridor traverses the territories of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan,
Georgia, and Türkiye.
Although this route’s current capacity is insufficient to handle
normal cargo volumes, there is potential for its expansion. This
potential is corroborated by analyses and reports from
international financial institutions, which express their intent to
invest in the development of transport infrastructure along this
corridor.
Notably, in mid-April, President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart
Tokayev embarked on his inaugural official visit to Armenia. This
gesture can be seen as an attempt to strengthen bilateral
collaboration between the two countries in view of the recently
revealed reality in the South Caucasus. Previously, the development
of strong commercial relations between Kazakhstan and Armenia was
partly hampered by Kazakhstan’s position on the Karabakh conflict.
But now that Azerbaijan has returned its territory and a peace deal
appears likely, the way forward is becoming more apparent.
Naturally, genuine peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which
would ultimately enable a direct route between the two nations,
holds the potential to strengthen economic collaboration between
Kazakhstan and Armenia. Therefore, peace and the unblocking of
transportation links are poised to bolster Armenia’s trade
relations with Central Asian countries, China, and other Asian
nations. Although these kinds of conversations would have appeared
unlikely ten years ago, the way the area has changed since
2020—largely due to Azerbaijan’s actions—makes them possible
now.
In this regard, Kazakh political analyst and director of the
Kemel Arna Public Foundation, Zamir Karazhanov, told Trend about
his vision of the possible benefits of peace between Azerbaijan and
Armenia for countries, particularly Kazakhstan.
According to the political analyst, a peace agreement,
normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and
unblocking of transport communications would benefit all countries
in the region, as well as Kazakhstan.
“I believe that once the situation in the South Caucasus
stabilizes, Kazakhstan and the regional countries will benefit.
Large-scale opportunities arise from stabilization, therefore this
is just the beginning for us. Considering developments across
various regions, including the Middle East, it’s safe to say that
the Middle Corridor currently offers the most reliable route for
cargo transportation between Asia and Europe. Through its
utilization, we can boost cargo volumes and, as the saying goes,
pave the way for a brighter future,” he said.
According to Karazhanov, this development will also contribute
to the growth of investment between the countries in the
region.
“We recognize that transportation is merely the beginning. It is
poised to bring other sectors along with it, such as investments,
cultural cooperation, education, and more. In essence, all these
facets are set to grow in intensity,” he emphasized.
According to the analyst, Armenia sees and understands that all
these regional projects bypass it, and the country’s leadership
realizes the losses from non-participation in them.
“Hence, I am of the opinion that Armenia is keen on this
development. Currently, both sides are in talks regarding the
specifics of the peace agreement, with achievable objectives being
set. These include mutual acknowledgment of territorial integrity,
border delimitation, demarcation, and more. Essentially, Armenia
and Azerbaijan aim to address all matters comprehensively within
one cohesive agreement, avoiding the need to revisit unresolved
issues in subsequent stages. It is plausible, even likely, that
this peace agreement will incorporate clauses on cooperation across
various economic sectors, such as transportation, environmental
protection, and possibly mutual arms control for security purposes.
These discussions indicate a forward-thinking approach by the
countries, looking beyond immediate needs. The pragmatic stance
taken by these nations fosters optimistic expectations for the
peace agreement and its subsequent phases,” he said.
Saken Mukan, a Kazakh political scientist and professor at the
Department of Media Communication and History of Kazakhstan at the
International IT University (IITU), told Trend that
Kazakhstan views the resolution of the Karabakh issue as a pivotal
step towards enhancing relations with both Azerbaijan and
Armenia.
Speaking about the possible opening of a transportation route to
Armenia via Azerbaijan, the political analyst mentioned that it
would facilitate Kazakhstan’s trade with Armenia.
“During Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit to
Armenia, Kazakh officials emphasized to both local and Armenian
media that the movement of cargo between the two countries is
routed through Iran and Turkmenistan.
This route naturally complicates matters, both logistically and
formally. Given that a visa is needed to enter Turkmenistan, this
results in consumers purchasing these goods at a higher price. This
situation runs counter to the essence and purpose of cooperation
within the EAEU, as it hinders collaboration instead of fostering
improvement,” he said.
In his opinion, the route through Iran also limits exports and
imports of products.
“The second aspect is Iran, through which Armenian wine and
liquor products are not allowed as export products to third
countries. Hence, Kazakhstan is interested in Armenia getting
involved in further development of transportation projects in the
region,” he added.
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