The latest release of the College Football Playoff rankings was a bit interesting, even if it was a bit anticlimactic. That’s a good thing, though, because that’s how this should go, unlike what happened in the four-team era.
Oregon, Ohio State, Texas , Penn State and Indiana held their respective spots in the top five for a second straight week. At the backend of the rankings, Illinois slid in at No. 25, which is a bit of a boost to Penn State. Also, Missouri remained at 23 after a loss.
You can take a full look at the rankings here. Now, let me share my key takeaways from the third CFP rankings of the 2024 season.
Miami was ranked too high
While many focused on Indiana’s ranking, the ranking that stood out to me the most was Miami (Fla.) at No. 8. My first thought was, “In what world is Miami better than Ole Miss, Georgia and Tennessee,” who were ranked ninth, 10th and 11th, respectively. I just don’t agree with that ranking. This team has been living on the edge. It has a great quarterback and an offense that has to outscore you.
But that’s all that Miami has. Miami’s defense isn’t solid. It lost to Georgia Tech. It probably should’ve lost to Cal and Virginia Tech. Yet, the committee is telling us that Miami is better than Ole Miss, who has beaten Georgia. It’s saying that Miami is better than Georgia, which has beaten Texas and Tennessee. C’mon.
I’m not trying to tee off on Miami. I like Miami and the playoff would be great with it in it. Miami will also have the opportunity to play itself into the playoff.
Let me make the case for Georgia, Kirby
Having Miami at No. 8, I thought the committee might be trolling Kirby Smart by placing it ahead of Georgia because maybe it’s sick of comments like this:
“I don’t know what they’re looking for,” Smart said. “I don’t. I wish they could really define the criteria. I wish they could do the eyeball test and come down here, look at the people we’re playing against and look at them. But they’re not in that environment, they’re not at Ole Miss in that environment, playing against that defense, which is top five in the country with one of the best pass rushers in the country and they’re fired up. They’ve got a two-score lead and they’re coming every play.
“They don’t know that. They don’t understand that. So, they’ll probably look at this week and say we probably played one of the best defenses in the country and we went for 453 [yards] on them and it could’ve been more. It’s just the tale of each week.”
So, maybe the committee is trolling Smart. After reading that, could anyone blame them?
Smart’s a great coach. I consider him one of the best coaches, if not the best coach, in college football. This is the form of Smart I least like. I really love almost everything that he does until he gets into the mode he was in after Saturday’s win over Tennessee. It happens in the SEC a lot, and they rant and rave about how we don’t know what their schedules are like.
Georgia takes down Tennessee in 31-17 win
Georgia should be higher than Miami. Maybe the committee is just tired of whining after the games? That could be it. Georgia’s résumé is outstanding and if anyone should have a gripe, it’s Georgia.
So, let me do the complaining for you, Kirby. Sure, Georgia is 8-2, but its win at Texas is probably the best win in the country this season. The Bulldogs just beat up Tennessee badly. Their strength of schedule is the best in the country. They’re 3-2 against top-25 teams this season. That résumé is better than Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Indiana and a lot of teams.
Georgia is kind of in a precarious spot. Not with its playoff hopes, but with its positioning in the 12-team field.
Indiana doesn’t have to prove itself against Ohio State this weekend
The conversation around the playoff has seemed to focus around Indiana and what it needs to prove in Columbus this weekend. Let me start with this: I don’t think Indiana is going to get blown out. This team is much better than people realize. Everyone’s focused on Indiana’s strength of schedule, which isn’t great. But when you saw that schedule when it was made last year, it had Michigan and Washington teams that were on their way to making the national championship game on top of Ohio State.
Indiana has been dominant, though, against that lesser schedule. Indiana has been great against the team that’s been in front of it. Indiana didn’t know that Michigan and Washington were going to have such steep falls or that Nebraska would crater from its 5-1 start. Indiana’s margin of victory (30.1 points) is up there with the best in the country.
So, I totally disagree with the sentiment that Indiana has to prove something against Ohio State on Saturday. If Indiana loses on Saturday, then Curt Cignetti should pull a page out of Smart’s book and say it lost to a top-five team in a road environment.
I think Indiana has shown enough that it should be in the playoff as an 11-1 team, which looks like it will be the case.
If this was a different brand, we wouldn’t be pounding them for being undefeated with a lighter schedule. There are teams with bad résumés all around them, including teams that have lost football games. Texas doesn’t have a top-25 win and decisively lost at home against Georgia. Penn State’s résumé isn’t great and it lost its only tough game. Penn State’s only top-25 win is against No. 25 Illinois. Notre Dame’s résumé isn’t great. It lost at home against Northern Illinois. Miami lost to Georgia Tech and doesn’t have many good wins.
Indiana Hoosiers: What do they have to do vs. Ohio State to get into the playoff?
The point is that no one can have a loss now. Oregon is really the only team that can lose one more game and likely not have to worry about its CFP chances. It’s already 11-0 with a win over Ohio State and is going to the Big Ten Championship Game.
But the idea that Indiana has something to prove is a sentiment I disagree with. Indiana has proven to be legitimate. Still, just about everyone has to keep winning in order to make the CFP.
What’s at stake for Georgia moving forward?
While I didn’t like Smart’s comments after Georgia’s win over Tennessee on Saturday, he has a point about evaluating this team and using the eye test. The path to a title can be pretty precarious if you’re in the wrong spot. After Tuesday’s rankings, Georgia would be seeded 11th and have to play a first-round game at Penn State.
Let’s take a full look at the bracket.
Byes: 1. Oregon, 2. Texas, 3. Miami, 4. Boise State
First-round matchups: 12. BYU vs. 5. Ohio State, 9. Alabama vs. 8. Notre Dame, 10. Ole Miss vs. 7. Indiana, 11. Georgia vs. 6. Penn State
I don’t think Georgia will land at 11 when the playoff arrives. Georgia’s likely to land somewhere between 7-10. It doesn’t have enough on its schedule to leap all the way to the fifth seed. The fifth and sixth seeds will likely be reserved for the losers in the SEC and Big Ten Championship Games.
If Georgia is going to continue to get this kind of look, it feels more likely that it’ll get the ninth seed. Whoever gets the ninth seed is going to have a rough path to the national title. You’ll have a road game against the eighth seed in the first round, which is the worst part of the path. You’d have to play the one seed if you win your first-round game, with the one seed likely being one of the Big Ten or SEC winners. If you win the quarterfinal game, a matchup against the fifth seed likely awaits as there’s a strong chance the team with that seed is the third-ranked team in the nation. All of that happens before possibly playing in the national championship game.
So, Smart’s gripe might be a bit understandable when you look at that path, especially when you look at who the teams ranked ahead of Georgia lost to. Alabama lost to Vanderbilt and Ole Miss lost to Kentucky.
Georgia and Kirby Smart might have to make another trip to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama in the first-round of the College Football Playoff. (Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
A 10-2 SEC team will likely miss the playoff
When you play this thing out, it’s becoming clearer that a two-loss SEC team will likely miss the playoff unless a pair of certain results happen. You can start to hear the SEC people getting nervous, causing them to gripe. At the moment, Tennessee and Texas A&M aren’t in the picture.
When you look at the schedule for the last two weeks of the regular season, there are two games left that will greatly impact the SEC. One’s not even an SEC game. If I’m Tennessee and the SEC office, I’m rooting for Army to beat Notre Dame this weekend. A Notre Dame loss would knock it down and probably out of the bracket when you add in its loss to Northern Illinois.
Tennessee also has to root for Texas to beat Texas A&M. In fact, the SEC might want that result too, so it can avoid the chaos of having six teams sit at 10-2 before the conference championship game.
If Notre Dame loses this weekend and Texas takes down Texas A&M, you can get Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia and Tennessee all in the bracket. That’s the most plausible way for the SEC to get five teams in.
Tennessee was ranked 11th in the latest CFP ranking, but wouldn’t make the playoff field if the season ended today. (Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
This further proves that the shift to the 12-team playoff was the right call
Just looking at the bracket, I can’t help but think that this is awesome. Truth be told, I thought the four-team playoff was bad from the start.
Every week, I like the 12-team playoff more and more. It’s not a perfect model (I think it should be a 14-team playoff), but we’re a week away from Thanksgiving and we’ve got so many teams playing games with playoff implications. All the fan bases that are all in on college football have grown.
It’s going to make the sport better. Now, recruits and players in the portal won’t have to think they only have a realistic shot at making the playoff if they go to a few certain schools. There are 15 to 20 schools that are still alive for a playoff spot entering this weekend. We should be seeing more parity across the sport.
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him at @joelklatt and subscribe to the “Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.
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