Sorry, Baker.
You can’t let it go to a coin toss with Patrick Mahomes. Because even that — something even the conspiracy theorists couldn’t claim he has control over — is where Mahomes will get yet another W. When Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs won the overtime coin toss, Baker Mayfield seemed to know it was over.
Mahomes won the game, 30-24. Mayfield never touched the ball in overtime. And I’d bet he regrets not doing more with his final three drives of the game when he managed to score just once: a game-tying touchdown.
We’ll talk more about Mahomes. But Mayfield put up an admirable fight and a clean game against the Chiefs. It’s just that, at this point, we all know that’s not enough to beat them.
Welcome back to the QB Stock market, where we weigh the most recent performances with 30% importance, while applying 70% to the rest of 2024. One question holds importance above all others: What have you done for your team lately?
Previous weeks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
1. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (↔)
Allen hasn’t lost his aggressiveness. But he’s playing with just the right amount of fear in him.
This was the cleanest I’ve seen him play all season, particularly when graded on a curve for an impressive Miami defense.
Credit to Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver. He put together a game plan that forced Allen to play with patience. It was a plan filled with bait to exasperate Allen into mistakes. Allen kept calm. Even without Amari Cooper, Allen trusted his pass-catchers to chip away at the Dolphins, and the Bills small-balled their way to a win.
Allen finished with an interception, but I didn’t see him throw a single turnover-worthy play. (The interception came on a Keon Coleman drop.) This isn’t the most exciting version of Allen to watch. But that’s the whole point — at least from a defensive coordinator’s standpoint. They’re taking away the splash. They’re killing the fun. And you’ll still see Allen do something ridiculous from time to time, including his insane touchdown pass to tight end Quinton Morris, as he put the ball where only Morris could catch it. And Morris did.
Allen is more bought-in than ever at playing boring to win games. That actually makes the Bills more dangerous than last year.
2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (↔)
3. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (⬆️ 3)
4. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (⬇️ 1)
5. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (⬆️ 3)
6. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (⬆️ 3)
I’ve been saying for weeks: It’s wild to think Mahomes and the Chiefs are playing beneath themselves. Just wait until things start to click.
Well, that’s exactly what’s happening.
I don’t know if they were playing dead or calibrating (from Marquise Brown to Xavier Worthy to JuJu Smith-Schuster to, now, DeAndre Hopkins) or managing workloads or what. Whatever the case, Mahomes was pretty bad for the first few weeks of the season. But over the past few weeks, his progress has been exponential. On Monday, he played like the best quarterback on the planet. And maybe it was because he finally had to. Mayfield challenged the Chiefs defense enough to put the load on Mahomes — which we haven’t really seen this year. The KC defense has often done all of the work for its quarterback.
But with Baker really pushing, Mahomes had to respond. So he did: 33 of 44, 291 yards, three touchdowns, no turnovers.
It’s sure as heck not going to be Mahomes’ last remarkable performance this season.
7. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (↔)
8. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (⬇️ 3)
9. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (⬇️ 5)
Stroud might not have a more disappointing performance on his résumé than what we saw Thursday night against the New York Jets.
The offense looked functionally incapacitated from top to bottom. And while Stroud could blame his crappy offensive line and shorthanded receiver group (with Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs injured), the blame should fall first on him. If he’s the next great QB, he has to do more with less. He has to succeed despite adversity. He hasn’t always done that this year.
He had a few highlight-reel plays, including his four big-time throws, per Pro Football Focus. But he only completed 11 of 30 attempts for 191 yards. Houston’s whole passing offense was predicated on the big play. When there were openings for Stroud in the short and intermediate, he missed his wideouts, with too many unforced errors. He also took eight sacks for a loss of 56 yards.
It was a game of missed opportunity. It didn’t look like a fluke, either. The Texans have showed signs of systemic problems when they’re without Collins. The loss of Diggs further muddies the waters. I’m starting to get worried about Stroud, at least in the short term.
10. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (↔)
11. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (⬆️ 1)
12. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons (⬆️ 2)
13. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (⬆️ 3)
14. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (⬇️ 1)
It’s not totally a good sign that the Cardinals essentially said, “You know what, Kyler, why don’t you take a backseat and we’ll win this one without you.”
But … it’s also not exactly a bad thing.
This week, Arizona relied more on its ground game than it has all year, with its 213 rushing yards accounting for 61% of its total offense. Kyler had just 154 passing yards and six rushing yards.
What does it mean?
Last year, Allen turned the corner when the Bills found their stride running the football. Joe Mixon has helped keep Stroud in games when the passing game had issues. Derrick Henry has changed the Super Bowl odds with how he’s producing in Baltimore. The running game exists for a reason. And sometimes (though not this week), Kyler is a part of that running game.
Kyler’s film wasn’t particularly good. But I think the Cardinals figured something out offensively that will only make their quarterback better. So, if this were an earnings call, we’d be forecasting a really strong second half of the 2024 season.
15. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (⬆️ 2)
16. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (⬆️ 5)
17. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (⬇️ 2)
He’s a system quarterback. But he’s not a game manager.
For most of the season, his system and skill players have made him look outstanding. Or, at least, prolific. He has led the NFL in passing yards at times. And that’s because — as we’re seeing with Darnold — a strong offensive line and a stellar group of receivers can make a quarterback perform (statistically) at a top-10 level.
But as we saw Jaxon Smith-Njigba go off, I was reminded that the Seahawks have the best WR corps in the NFL. I genuinely believe the DK Metcalf, Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett will best any group, even the Philadelphia Eagles (because who’s their No. 3 option?) and the Miami Dolphins (whose top two are playing poorly).
Smith has done a nice job of getting the ball in the hands of his guys — and getting out of the way. But at a certain point, a quarterback needs to do more than that. On Sunday, when he tried to do more for his team, he instead got in the way. His two fourth quarter interceptions were the reason the Seahawks lost to the Rams and, in turn, squandered the cushion Seattle had in the division when it got off to a 3-0 start.
18. Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers (↔)
19. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (⬇️ 8)
20. Drake Maye, New England Patriots (⬆️ 3)
The Patriots only have three surefire starting-caliber players on their offense: Michael Onwenu, Rhamondre Stevenson and Drake Maye. That’s it. Hunter Henry could be a TE1 for a few teams.
As a testament to that seemingly harsh evaluation, New England is buying at the trade deadline. General manager Eliot Wolf is looking for help on the offensive line and at receiver. The Pats know how bad this roster is. They know they’re doing Maye dirty. They want to give him more support.
So, that’s what is making Maye a challenging evaluation. He’s doing so much more with this offense than Jacoby Brissett did — and more than I could’ve imagined a rookie doing with this offense. His teammates love him.
And from all we’ve seen of him, he has “it.” He has the determination and drive to win. And he has the talent to match. Everyone has probably seen the play that sent the Patriots and Titans into overtime. Maye scrambled for 11.8 seconds and — while getting hit — got the ball to Stevenson.
But there’s still reason for concern. Not enough has been made of the two interceptions, which were both troubling. No matter who’s playing on the OL and who’s playing at WR, those throws would have been interceptions. It’s that simple. Chalk them up to rookie mistakes for now. But he already has two three-turnover games in the three full games he’s played.
He can elevate his teammates while making mistakes along the way. But will he ultimately do what Allen and Herbert do? (Those are, after all, the QBs that Maye compares to.) They have cut out the mistakes in their careers. Now, they just elevate.
That’s Maye’s North Star.
21. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets (⬆️ 5)
22. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints (new)
23. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (⬇️ 3)
24. Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns (⬇️ 5)
25. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (↔)
26. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (⬆️ 1)
27. Joe Flacco, Indianapolis Colts (new)
28. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (⬇️ 6)
I’m worried about Caleb.
We’ve just seen too many elite QB prospects fail to make the necessary progress. And I’m not yet seeing the upward trajectory that I’d like to see from Williams.
He’s allergic to the pocket. He’s obsessed with the big play. He has no reason to trust that Matt Eberflus’ coaching staff will be in place at the start of 2025. Williams doesn’t seem to trust his offensive line, and it feels like he’s rarely operating within the Bears’ system. And these are all issues that I’ve noted before!
Williams isn’t buried, by any stretch. We’re a long way from knowing what kind of quarterback Williams will someday be. But right now, he’s not a very good one. I have spent a lot of time watching Trevor Lawrence this year, and I get concerned when The Next Big Thing’s film shows his ceiling for a few plays and his floor most others, with very little in between.
“To be successful at anything, the truth is you don’t have to be special,” Tom Brady said during his Hall of Fame speech. “You just have to be what most people aren’t: consistent, determined and willing to work for it.”
Competence — that’s what Williams needs to focus on. And it’s hard for him to do that with so much incompetence around him (particularly on the OL and the coaching staff).
29. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (⬇️ 5)
30. Mason Rudolph, Tennessee Titans (⬇️ 2)
31. Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders (⬇️ 1)
32. Daniel Jones, New York Giants (⬇️ 1)
Henry McKenna is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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