College football bowl season is upon us!
To wager on these games, you must be a roster expert, knowing which players have transferred out or opted not to play.
You must know if a coach is coming or going, as that could affect how a team is prepared for its bowl game.
RELATED: Bowl predictions, best bets by Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica
Lastly, you must know how each program feels about playing in its bowl game.
For example, teams that lose in the Pac-12 Championship Game are 0-11 in their bowl games.
I’m going to break down the bowl games I like below, but first, let’s take a look at the Army–Navy game.
(All times ET)
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Conway, South Carolina
Georgia Southern (6-6) vs. Ohio (9-3)
11 a.m., Saturday, ESPN
The Bobcats have so many transfers that the wager here must be on the Eagles. And while you’re not getting the best of the number, this might continue to climb.
Ohio is without starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke, a wide receiver and two running backs, all lost to the transfer portal. In addition, there are other players already sidelined with injuries, including backup quarterback CJ Harris. So Ohio is rolling with third-string QB Parker Navarro.
The Eagles are healthy. It’s a tad bit of strength-on-strength with Georgia Southern’s offense against Ohio’s defense. The Bobcats were 10th in defensive points per drive, while the Eagles were just above average on offense.
On the other side is a poor Bobcats offense without any of its best players, so Georgia Southern is the way to go. I’d even be OK laying the moneyline, but I’ll take the 3.5 points.
PICK: Georgia Southern (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)
LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk
UCLA (7-5) vs. Boise State (8-5)
7:30 p.m., Saturday, ABC
The Broncos fired Andy Avalos in early November in what appeared to be a lost season. Interim coach Spencer Danielson led the Broncos to two wins to close out the regular season, plus a surprise rout of UNLV to win the Mountain West Conference championship.
Danielson was given permanent coaching status and the vibes are high in Boise. However, starting quarterback Taylen Green transferred to Arkansas, and backup Maddux Madsen is out (knee). So the Broncos are going into this game with third-stringer CJ Tiller, who has taken just two college snaps.
They are playing a UCLA defense that was outstanding this season, finishing sixth in points per drive. However, UCLA defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn was hired by USC, their best pass rusher Laiatu Latu opted out and a few starting secondary pieces are in the portal.
However, against a Boise State offense with a third-string quarterback, I expect the Bruins defense to play well.
But UCLA’s offense was not good this season. It played three quarterbacks and were 76th in points per drive. It scored seven points in two of its past three games and will be down a few portal players on offense.
I have the Under in this game, with Boise State’s offense on a third-string QB and UCLA’s offense being blah for most of the season.
PICK: Under 50.5 points (at time of pick) scored by both teams combined
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Shreveport, Louisiana
California (6-6) vs. Texas Tech (6-6)
9:15 p.m., Saturday, ESPN
I like the Over in this game, with the Golden Bears having a surprising explosive offense at times and the Red Raiders’ ground game being able to run over Cal.
The Bears will be without offensive coordinator Jake Spavital, who went to Baylor to run its offense. Taking over is offensive line coach Mike Bloesch, the former offensive coordinator at North Texas. He knows how to call a game and Cal’s 56th-ranked points per drive offense should move the ball on Tech’s run defense, which is 69th in rushing success rate.
The Red Raiders have an outstanding running back in Tahj Brooks, who’s rushed for 1,443 yards this season. Cal’s defense is super leaky, finishing 103rd in points per drive. The Bears allowed 63 points to Oregon, 50 to USC and 39 to Washington State in the back half of the season.
Texas Tech should be able to score on the Bears, even with its quarterback situation up in the air.
PICK: Over 58 points scored by both teams combined
Birmingham Bowl
Troy vs. Duke
Noon, Dec. 23, ABC
Things like motivation and roster availability weigh heavily toward the Trojans.
Troy appears to have its roster intact for this game, and the Trojans have the motivation to play a Power 5 team in a game just 140 miles from campus.
The Trojans are the Sun Belt champions, and according to local beat writers, Troy’s fans will attempt to take over the city for this game.
On the other hand, the Blue Devils coach, Mike Elko, and some staff members are leaving for Texas A&M.
Duke’s starting quarterback Riley Leonard is already in the portal, and it’s possible some of the offensive linemen will join him or opt out of the game.
The Blue Devils finished the season losing four of six. I will take Troy to win and cover.
PICK: Troy (-6.5) to win by more than 6.5 points
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Northwestern vs. Utah
7:30 p.m., Dec. 23, ABC
The Wildcats had a fantastic season, going from one win last year to seven in 2023. Interim coach David Braun was given the full-time gig, and I imagine this will fire up the squad for this bowl game.
Northwestern’s roster is more complete and healthier than Utah, which went 8-4 after losing so many starters to injury — starting quarterbacks, running backs, linebackers, pass rushers, etc. Just no chance to win.
On top of that, the Utes are expecting more opt-outs. Utah’s Bryson Barnes is back from injury, and although he’s entered the transfer portal, he is scheduled to start against the Wildcats.
If Barnes is out at all, Utah is going to a fifth-string quarterback (Luke Bottari) who started against Colorado. Any way you cut it, the Utes might outright lose this game.
PICK: Northwestern (+7) to lose by 7 or fewer points (or win outright)
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
No. 19 Oregon State vs. No. 16 Notre Dame
2 p.m., Dec. 29, CBS
This is a straight fade of the Beavers.
Oregon State lost head coach Jonathan Smith to Michigan State, plus its offensive coordinator, offensive line coach, and another eight coaches in various roles.
Even though the Beavers promoted defensive coordinator Trent Bray to replace Smith, his new coaches can’t be on the field for the bowl game. So the Beavers will be coached by graduate assistants and analysts on offense.
To make it worse for Oregon State, both quarterbacks (including DJ Uiagalelei) entered the portal. The Beavers’ middle linebacker, their two best corners and a safety also entered the portal, plus there could be more opt-outs on the offensive line.
Notre Dame is likely to be without a few key players on offense, but quarterback Sam Hartman is supposed to play.
I like the Fighting Irish to win big.
PICK: Notre Dame (-8.5) to win by more than 8.5 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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